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FEBRUARY 28,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:56 A.M. ET: 

HOW COLD IS IT? – The classic Johnny Carson question is answered by Green Bay.  From Greenbaypressgazette.com:  "Its not a good winter to be a weather record in Wisconsin. Or anything else, for that matter.  A pair of records fell within hours of each other in Green Bay early Friday.  At midnight, Green Bay made it 49 days with subzero temperatures, the most in a winter. The previous record, 48 days, was set in 1976-77.  Just before 4 a.m., the temperature was minus 18, breaking the previous record of minus 17 set in 1962. The mercury continued to fall to minus 21 just before 5 a.m., according to the National Weather Service office in Ashwaubenon."  Al Gore is rushing a supply of blankets.

OBAMA WARNS RUSSIA – President Obama warned Russia that there would be consequences if Moscow intervened militarily in the Ukraine.  Of course, he didn't say what the consequences would be, but the president not known as Old Ironsides did vigorously threaten to consult with the 'international community' to arrive at a proper response.  Vladimir Putin must be shaking...probably with laughter.  Obama devoted three minutes to his statement on Ukraine, and did not take questions.  What an impact.

RUSSIA PUSHES IT – From CNS:  "At a time of escalated tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia says it is negotiating with eight governments around the world for access to military facilities, to enable it to extend its long-range naval and strategic bomber capabilities.  Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday the military was engaged in talks with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Algeria, Cyprus, the Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore."  At the same time, we are cutting our defenses.  Hats off to Field Marshal Obama and Sergeant Minor Hagel.

HILLARY'S HEALTH – I don't know if this is a story or non-story.  Most of you have probably seen the speculative stories around the internet today suggesting that Hillary Clinton is "sicker" than advertised and that health may prevent her from running in 2016.  I've not found any real evidence so far to back this up.  The stories seem to be based on theories, guesses, and the fact that Ms. Clinton has been looking a bit haggard.  But she's in her late sixties and maintains a heavy schedule.  You can get to look haggard in that situation.  I'll be on the lookout for any real information, but I haven't seen it thus far.

February 28, 2014       Permalink

DISGRACE – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  Detroit is a disgrace.  It is a model of how a city shouldn't be run.  The Washington Post, which once again shows that it has the best liberal editorial page in the country, calls the situation right, while other liberal papers are silent.  Praise to the Post:

DETROIT’S BANKRUPTCY is so catastrophic, and its causes so local, that it is tempting to say that the Motor City’s downfall has few lessons for state and other local governments. It’s hard to imagine a combination of deindustrialization and population loss more powerful than what afflicted Detroit.

Still, mismanagement made matters worse. Anyone who doubts that should peruse the bankruptcy plan filed by the city’s emergency manager, Kevyn D. Orr, on Feb. 21. It prescribes pension cuts for city retirees and an 80 percent haircut on bondholders, and it documents the terrible governance that helped make these unavoidable.

Mr. Orr proposes cutting police and fire pension benefits by up to 10 percent per year; civilian retirees face a potential cut of 34 percent. The latter is especially painful, given that Detroit civilian pensions average only $19,000 per year. (The figure is $30,500 for police officers and firefighters.) Not surprisingly, the city’s unions want to fight the cuts, and a citizens’ group is vowing to “shut the city down” in protest.

As Mr. Orr’s report explains, however, Detroit’s pension funds might be less vulnerable today if their trustees, many of them city union officials, had not repeatedly dipped into them to make bonus payments, sometimes known as “the 13th month,” to retired and active city workers. That ploy cost the city’s two largest pension funds $1.92 billion between 1985 and 2008, according to Mr. Orr’s filings.

Bondholders, too, are bemoaning their fate under Mr. Orr’s plan. Pensioners are getting too much, and they are getting it at bondholders’ expense, they cry. Labeling the plan “hostile” to holders of $2 billion in general revenue obligations, the Fitch bond rating firm has issued a statement suggesting that Mr. Orr’s plan could damage the bond market’s “perception of the state and its local governments.”

Lenders have come to treat tax-backed municipal debt as nearly risk-free, and no doubt Detroit’s bankruptcy experience may cause some to reprice the risk of financing municipal governments, not only in Michigan but also around the country. But that might not be an entirely bad thing, within limits, if it prompts loosely run municipalities to keep their finances in better order. Surely banks that took fees to help Detroit fund its pensions with $1.4 billion in dodgy “certificates of participation” deserve to be taught a lesson. As Mr. Orr alleges in a separate lawsuit related to the bankruptcy, the certificates were essentially loans to shell corporations that enabled Detroit to take on debt in violation of its legal borrowing limits.

COMMENT:  What a great picture.   And it didn't help that the Big Three automakers, who helped make Detroit a thriving city, have been in decline, in part because of their own catastrophic ineptness and cynicism. 

There's plenty of blame to go around, but a good chunk of it goes to the media, which was too often reluctant to criticize a black-run city.  That certainly has helped the black citizens of Detroit, hasn't it?

February 28, 2014        Permalink

A KEY SPECIAL ELECTION – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  It hasn't gotten much attention, but there's a key special congressional election coming up within days.  Watch it carefully.  From Fox:

CLEARWATER, Fla. – Special elections rarely attract this much attention. But the race for Florida's 13th Congressional District is a hot one -- with so much at stake in November, what happens here is seen as a possible indicator of how the midterm elections could break.

"I think it's very important because, obviously, both parties have got their eyes focused sharply on what the ObamaCare issue does," said Susan McManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. "Does it push (David) Jolly, the Republican across the finish line? Or does it help (Democratic candidate Alex) Sink win?"

The election is coming up on March 11, in the race to fill the seat held for 43 years by Republican Bill Young -- who died last October.

Republican contender David Jolly, a first-time candidate, worked for Young in Washington. Democrat Alex Sink narrowly lost the governor's race to Rick Scott in 2010.

At Frida's café in Largo, Fla., which serves up cookies adorned with the faces of political candidates, some early voters voiced fierce opposition to ObamaCare, a key issue in the race.

"I had Blue Cross, Blue Shield," small business owner Roy Badie told Fox News. "And when ObamaCare kicked in, basically I couldn't afford it. I lose coverage on my children because it was so high. So now I am paying out of my own pocket for them."

Badie said he had cast an early ballot for Jolly.

Another small business owner, Sarah Paul, is on the fence about who to vote for. A registered Republican, she's a fan of ObamaCare and recently signed herself and her husband up for coverage.

"We haven't had insurance for 28 years," Paul told Fox News. "No joke. We couldn't afford it."

The opposing opinions are a reflection of the 13th Congressional District, a purple district in a purple state. While Young represented the district for 43 years, Sink -- a Democrat -- actually carried it in her failed bid for governor in 2010.

Jolly is hoping his push to repeal ObamaCare will win over voters, mindful that he needs to propose alternatives.

"We can't just be the party of 'no.' We can't just say ObamaCare is bad. We have to have creative solutions," Jolly told Fox News.

COMMENT:  We're rooting for Jolly, but if the districts flips and goes Dem, it will be a warning sign to us that November will not be a cakewalk.

February 28, 2014       Permalink

UKRAINE UPDATE – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  It is hard to get precise information on what's happening in Ukraine, in part because we don't know who's lying.  But the situation is grim, with a serious threat of Russian military intervention.  From London's Telegraph:   

Ukraine accused Russia of staging an "armed invasion" of Crimea on Friday as the ex-Soviet state's ousted leader prepared to emerge defiant from five days of hiding after winning protection from Moscow.

Unidentified armed men were patrolling outside of Crimea's main airport early Friday while gunmen were also reported to have seized another airfield on the southwest of the peninsula where ethnic Russians are a majority and where pro-Moscow sentiment runs high.

Western governments have been watching with increasing worry as Kiev's new pro-EU rulers grapple with dual threats of economic collapse and cession from Russified southern and eastern regions of the divided nation, which had backed fugitive ex-president Viktor Yanukovych.

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week stoked concerns that Moscow might use its military might to sway the outcome of Ukraine's three-month standoff by ordering snap combat drills near its border involving 150,000 troops and nearly 900 tanks.

COMMENT:  This is occurring where East meets West in Europe.  If Putin should move militarily, and get away with it, it would mark a new day in international relations – a rising Russia facing a weakening America, with a perpetually frightened Western Europe in the middle.  And a militant China rising in Asia.

Aren't you glad Obama is in the White House?

February 28, 2014       Permalink

WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  Washington announces an economic adjustment.  They really need to put fresh batteries in those calculators.  From The New York Times:

The economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2013 than first thought, weighed down by disappointing retail sales, inventory adjustments and a less robust trade balance.

The Commerce Department said Friday it now estimates the economy grew by 2.4 percent in October, November and December, down from an initial estimate of 3.2 percent released on Jan. 30.

Economists had been expecting the government to revise the estimated rate of growth downward to 2.5 percent.

At 2.4 percent, the revised figure represents a substantial slowing from the pace of growth in the third quarter, 4.1 percent.

Most experts believe the economy will continue to expand at a lackluster pace in the first several months of 2014, with growth picking up over the remainder of the year. Economists are looking for growth of about 2 percent in the first quarter.

One reason for the current weakness is the more rapid pace of inventory gains in the second half of 2013, which tends to pull growth forward and then create slack as stockpiles at warehouses and store shelves are gradually wound down.

Still, after a burst of optimism late last year, fears have been rising that the economy is not gaining momentum as originally hoped and is entering another of the periodic slow patches that have characterized the recovery of the last five years.

COMMENT:  And the jobs picture is bleak.  The administration's answer seems to be more regulation and a crazed health-care system that is a track wreck on arrival.

Can conservatives capitalize on this mess?  It should be easy, but it won't be.  Unimaginative Republican candidates platforms and management have held the party back.  And the Dems have a built-in constituency made up of those people dependent on the government.  That number is expanding.

It will be hard, but our side can win, if the right fires are lit.

February 28,  2014     Permalink

FEBRUARY 27,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:50 P.M. ET: 

OUTRAGEOUS – From Reuters:  "The U.N. nuclear watchdog planned a major report on Iran that might have revealed more of its suspected atomic bomb research, but held off as Tehran's relations with the outside world thawed, sources familiar with the matter said.  Such a report - to have been prepared last year - would almost certainly have angered Iran and complicated efforts to settle a decade-old dispute over its atomic aspirations, moves which accelerated after pragmatic President Hassan Rouhani took office in August."  Translated into English, we're not getting the full story, and our lives are involved.  The UN always winds up giving a helping hand to the worst regimes on Earth.

TRUE TO FORM – Like the socialist that he is, New York's new Mayor Bill DeBlasio is suspicious of success and believes in the mediocrity of forced equality.  So, he's going after charter public schools, one of the great ideas in breaking the failure spiral of public schools.  From the New York Post:  "New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio took off the gloves in his battle with education reformers, rescinding an agreement for the city to share space with several public charter schools.  The move undercuts educators, parents and some 700 students at four schools, including Harlem Success 4, one of the public charter school movement’s top success stories, and two set to open in the fall. While agreements at those schools were rescinded, expansion of a fourth school was also blocked. The schools were to operate rent-free in city-owned facilities under deals backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an ardent supporter of charter schools. But de Blasio, who is an unabashed critic of charter schools and won election with full-throated support of the United Federation of Teachers, said in a statement some of the city’s agreements to share class space will be voided."  Lots of disappointed parents whose dreams are being shattered.  But, comrades, we must not permit anyone to stand out.

WARNING ON IRAN SANCTIONS – From Newsmax:  "The nuclear arms agreement between the U.S. and Iran that eased some economic sanctions is 'crumbling,' Sen. Lindsey Graham said Thursday, calling on Congress to impose new sanctions against Tehran.  'The sanctions are crumbling,' Graham told Fox News's 'America's Newsroom.' 'I want to put sanctions back on the table to let the Western world know that we're serious about sanctions. And, let the Iranians know that the pressure is not off.'  Graham said he had 59 co-sponsors for a bill to reimpose sanctions against Iran. He said Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid wouldn't allow it to come to the Senate for a vote, and was 'making the mistake of a lifetime by not putting sanctions back in place before they crumble.'"   Reid is taking his cue from Obama and his don't-upset-the-mullahs chorus.  The sanctions won't won't be reimposed because European business interests won't allow it, and Iran will get the bomb.

RETAILERS STRUGGLING – From Bloomberg:  "U.S. retailers last quarter suffered their darkest days since the recession.  With results in from 62 of 122 retail chains, the industry has posted its first profit quarterly drop since the economic contraction that ended in 2009, according to Retail Metrics Inc. Revenue also rose at the lowest rate since that year, the research firm found.  The results paint a grim picture of an industry hit hard by the sluggish job recovery and slow wage growth, which have turned U.S. consumers into a nation of penny pinchers."  Welcome to the recovery.  If it weren't for Barack, where would we be?

February 27,  2014     Permalink

UKRAINE – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Secretary Kerry has warned the Russians against provocative action, and of course the Russians immediately complied.  Right.  From London's Daily Mail:

Vladimir Putin mobilised more than 150,000 troops and an armada of ships yesterday for a drill to test the combat readiness of forces in western Russia as tensions over Ukraine continue to grow.

In addition to the soldiers – nearly twice the British Army’s manpower after planned cuts – 880 tanks, 210 aircraft and 80 warships will take part in the operation.

The manoeuvres raised fears that the Russian president may be planning to send forces into Ukraine after the toppling of its Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovych.

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said unspecified measures were also being taken to protect the country’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea, southern Ukraine.

He claimed the operation was not linked to the crisis in Ukraine, insisting it was intended to ‘check the troops’ readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation’s military security’.

The drill comes 48 hours after Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said the country’s interests and citizens in Ukraine were under threat in language that echoed his statements justifying Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 when he was president.

COMMENT:  I fear there'll be an intervention, and Obama will respond by studying the matter for two years.

Russia can act with arrogance because there's no one seriously pushing back.  It is this kind of instability that can lead to an international clash.  Weakness almost always leads to war.  No war ever got started because the free nations were too strong.

February 27, 2014       Permalink

THE VERDICT – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:  A new CBS News poll shows the erosion of Obama's support, as he enters the second year of his second term.  From CBS: 

Amid continued pessimism about the economy and direction of the country, 59 percent of Americans say they are disappointed in Mr. Obama's presidency (including 37 percent who are very disappointed); 40 percent are satisfied. Much of this discontent comes from Republicans and independents, but a quarter of Democrats express at least some disappointment.

Disappointment with Barack Obama's presidency has grown since the summer of 2012, and much of that rise has been among independents. Forty percent of independents say they are very disappointed today, up from 27 percent in August 2012.

President Obama's overall approval rating is now 41 percent, a dip of five points from last month and similar to what it was in December. Fifty-one percent disapprove of the job he is doing, up four points from last month.

More specifically, Mr. Obama gets low marks for his handling of both foreign policy (39 percent approve) and the economy (38 percent approve).

COMMENT:  I'm struck by the foreign policy figure.  Historically, Obama got pretty good grades in foreign policy, possibly because the public wasn't looking very carefully.  But now people see the extent of the disaster. 

And how will this affect Hillary, who owns this foreign policy?  That might depend on whether the press lets her off the hook, and that may just happen.

February 27, 2014       Permalink

I CAN'T WAIT – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  It is reported in The New York Times, the official newspaper of the Obama administration, that the president himself will plunge back into negotiations for an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.  Kind of reminds me of the Japanese kamikaze:

WASHINGTON — President Obama, after avoiding a hands-on role in Middle East peacemaking since the setbacks of his first term, plans to plunge back into the effort, his advisers said this week, starting with an urgent appeal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

When he welcomes Mr. Netanyahu to the White House on Monday, these officials said, Mr. Obama will press him to agree to a framework for a conclusive round of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations that is being drafted by Secretary of State John Kerry.

Later in March, Mr. Obama is likely to meet with the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, to make the same pitch. The goal, officials said, is to announce the framework, a kind of road map for further talks, by the end of April, the nine-month deadline that Mr. Kerry set last summer for a final peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.

COMMENT:  Is this wise?  Don't we have a State Department for this purpose?  Obama still believes his "prestige" can move mountains, but that prestige disappeared during his first term. 

It is being reported from the Mideast that the Palestinian side has already turned down the American framework proposal.  So what's the point of this?

Meanwhile, next door, Syria is in flames.  News reports speak of a coming huge battle, with ghastly casualties, between the Assad regime and the rebels.  We also learn that the Syrians are continuing to stall in their promise to send chemical weapons out of the country.

Ah, success.  It feels so good, doesn't it, Barack?

February 27, 2014       Permalink

WISING UP? – AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  Reader Joseph J. Gallick alerts us to this piece in The Wall Street Journal about Hollywood suddenly recognizing the importance of conservatives.  Of course, it's all self-interest, but that's okay. 

WASHINGTON—Hit by legislative setbacks in Washington, the Motion Picture Association of America is producing a Hollywood-style remake.

The movie industry's main lobbying group has ramped up its budget and donations to political groups in the past few years, and, in a switch for an industry long associated with Democrats, has quietly reached out to Republicans and conservative-leaning organizations in an effort to rebuild its clout.

Last year, the MPAA replaced its longtime lead lobbying firm, considered to be close with Democrats, with a lobbyist with ties to key GOP lawmakers. Its political-action committee now gives more donations to Republicans than Democrats. And it has sent money to a GOP super PAC, a conservative antitax entity and a business lobby helping Republicans in the 2014 elections.

The turnaround comes after Hollywood was handed a major legislative defeat two years ago when Congress bowed to pressure from the high-tech industry and buried legislation that would have made it more difficult for people to illegally download movies and other copyrighted content. It was a clear signal of the rising power of Silicon Valley in Washington, at the expense of Hollywood. "We realized we have to act like a normal trade organization," a senior executive at one studio said of the industry's recent political moves. "We have to reach out…and we can't be all on one side."

The rethink brought out tension between Hollywood's personal politics and its business priorities. Democratic candidates usually get most of the donations made by movie industry creative and business leaders, yet Republicans are more philosophically inclined to side with the industry's goals of copyright protection, free trade and lower taxes.

COMMENT:  I've dealt with the Hollywood left, and it's no fun.  Ronald Reagan, who was elected president of the Screen Actors Guild six times, once said that he'd learned about Communism by dealing with the Hollywood unions. 

Maybe some people in Hollywood are wising up.  Maybe, as they see production in California crumble, they'll realize they need allies beyond the groups of usual suspects.  It's a big maybe. 

February 27,  2014      Permalink